Why Is Spending So Far Ahead of Incomes?

Personal income and spending data late in the week suggested that consumers were on yet another buying binge even as inflation-adjusted incomes appeared to falter. My personal thought is that the income data has been exceptionally erratic and subject to large upward revisions. Meanwhile, the booming consumption number includes strong auto sales in February that benefited from the previous months powerful auto sales that somehow didnt make it into Januarys consumption number. Every dollar of auto sales goes into the consumption number, even if those sales are financed for over five years, distorting the relation between consumption and income. So beware the economist proffering warnings that the consumer is running on fumes. As long as employment continues to grow, the income data eventually has to follow. More news on the job front next week.

Good News/Bad News From the Personal Income and Expenditure Report
The good news first: Consumer expenditures were up 0.8% sequentially in February, and Januarys figure was revised from 0.2% to 0.4%. Even after inflation, consumption growth was up 0.2% in January and 0.5% in February. I believe that at least some of that large month-to-month improvement was due to auto sales that looked soft in January according to government data, even as industry data was relatively strong in both months.

But what really got me excited about the month-to-month report was a large increase in the massive services sector that, heretofore, had improved at a glacial pace. I was especially pleased to see a strong services number because those dollars are spend primarily in the US, boosting the US employment rate, unlike a lot of retail goods that are produced overseas. However, I should caution that even numbers this good are government data subject to revision, and it is just one month of dramatic improvement.

The consumption numbers were good enough to send economists back to the drawing board yet again for their first-quarter GDP estimate. First-quarter consumption now looks like it could be above 2% (and representing 70% of GDP), forcing many economists to boost their first quarter GDP growth estimates to 2.0%-2.5% from 1.0%-2.0% just two weeks ago. With only minimal improvement in March, the first quarter should show consumption growth of more than 2.3%, exceeding the fourth quarters 2.1%. Our weekly retail sales report data has kept me on the right side of arguments concerning consumption growth. Remember, January growth according to the official government report was originally a big fat goose egg, which reminds us not to rely too much on any one data point.

Even as consumption numbers seemed unreasonably and inexplicably strong, income numbers were incredibly weak. Reported disposable income growth of 0.2% looked puny compared to spending growth of 0.8%. Things got even worse when adjusted for inflation. Income adjusted for inflation declined 0.1% in January and 0.2% in February.

So Why Is Spending So Far Ahead of Income?
I think at least part of the reason is that I believe the income numbers seem a little light given relatively strong employment growth. I think the relatively strong employment numbers versus meager wage growth (even before inflation) seems to indicate the potential for an upward revision. Also, real disposable incomes are being held back by taxes that are growing much faster than incomes. I surmise that many of these taxes are being paid by those that are better off, and the higher taxes arent changing their spending habits, especially given the strong stock market. And some of the slow income growth is due to substantially smaller unemployment checks and Medicare and Medicaid payments, not entirely bad things (fewer unemployed, more people covered under work-related insurance, better health outcomes).

Finally as the use of credit increases, especially with a hot auto market, spending can move up without more income. The full cost of auto goes immediately into GDP and consumption while the cost can be financed over five years. Just as consumption fell dramatically faster than incomes at the beginning of the recession as credit contracted, consumption can go up faster than incomes as credit expand. Recent Fed data suggests that consumers have done just that.

Some observers fear that we are returning to our credit drunken ways. No way. I certainly dont want to return to a world where the only way to buy a car is with cash. By the way, in normal times when the proportion of people buying cars and using credit is at least relatively constant, one doesnt have to worry much about the mismatch between auto purchases, consumption, and income. But when auto sales increase more than 50% from the bottom and most of those cars are bought on credit, that is a big deal. In addition, the additional auto credit isnt coming from of crazed bankers but rational financial institutions. In retrospect, auto loans turned out to be a lot safer than mortgage loans (at least you could repossess a car and people tended to make their car payments ahead of mortgage payments).

Manufacturing Neither Weak Nor Strong
Manufacturing data remained mixed in February but managed to show some improvement from January, at least in terms of durable goods orders. The Chicago Purchasing Managers data  backed off of last months numbers, but was still well above 60, a generally bullish indicator. Given a weakening in export demand and a slowing in the auto sectors growth rate later this spring, Im not expecting a lot of help from manufacturing in 2012 (though no big declines, either). The economic key remains the US consumer, with a potential added boost from the housing and construction market.

Interpreting Housing Data Requires Picking a Frame of Reference
Real estate data continued to be relatively inconclusive, but at least its clear that things arent getting any worse–and might even be improving. Weather has wreaked havoc on real estate data with year-over-year comparisons benefiting from great weather this February compared to 2011s hermit-inducing conditions that included record cold and snow. On the other hand, month-to-month data has looked flat as good weather as early as December ruined normally powerful seasonal bounces. Of course, the media remains thoroughly confused with many outlets featuring month-to-month weakness while others are running headlines trumpeting a new boom based on the year-over-year numbers. I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

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Low-Interest Auto Loans, Thanks to the European Central Bank

FRANKFURT — As it moved boldly in recent months to avert a credit squeeze and a rash of bank failures, the European Central Bank might also have subsidized the market rollout of Volkswagen’s newest subcompact.

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Volkswagen’s chief executive, Martin Winterkorn, above, with an Up.

Volkswagen Financial Services, a unit of Europe’s largest carmaker, borrowed 2 billion euros ($2.6 billion) from the central bank at the end of February, one of numerous car company credit units to avail itself of the cheap, three-year loans.

Volkswagen said it would, in turn, lend the money to customers to buy cars, including the new fuel-efficient Up.

The industry infusion has been done without the fanfare — or testy debate — of Washington’s bailout of Detroit three years ago. In fact, helping Europe’s hard-pressed auto industry move cars off dealers’ lots was probably not what Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank’s president, had in mind when the bank issued a total of more than 1 trillion euros worth of cheap three-year loans in December and February.

Mr. Draghi was clearly more concerned about a severe banking crisis caused by dysfunctional money markets.

But one consequence of the loan program was to give automakers, through their in-house consumer finance units, a chance to raise low-interest money they could lend to customers to buy cars.

The European auto industry can use all the help it can get. Carmakers are suffering from a surplus in production capacity at a time when the market for midprice cars is slumping.

As long as their financial services units have banking licenses, automakers are eligible for European Central Bank money, just as any other bank.

The central bank is lending the money at an interest rate of 1 percent. Volkswagen said it planned to pass the benefits on to customers, and is enticing Up buyers with financing at a relatively low annual interest rate of 3.9 percent.

“It would be foolish not to do it,” Frank Witter, the chief executive of Volkswagen Financial Services, said in an interview last week on the sidelines of a news conference at a Frankfurt hotel, where an Up was on display.

Mercedes Bank, a unit of Daimler, said it also borrowed from the central bank, while PSA Financing, a unit of the maker of Peugeot and Citroën cars, hinted that it did so as well. Neither disclosed amounts. “I think everybody does it,” Mr. Witter said of his competitors.

The central bank’s money could be crucial for the European car industry, which appears to be headed for its second big downturn since the beginning of 2009. Registrations of new cars in Europe were down 8.3 percent in January and February compared with the same period in 2011. The slump is particularly ominous for brands sold primarily in Europe, like Peugeot or Opel from General Motors.

The European Central Bank’s loans cannot solve the problems those companies have with underused factories, but it at least ensures that customers who want cars can get financing to buy them.

But the automakers’ borrowing also illustrates the extent to which the central bank’s loan program was something of blind leap of faith by policy makers. The flood of money has clearly lowered tensions in the euro zone — but there was also a risk the cash might be put to use in ways that the bank did not intend and might not regard as positive.

So far, for example, the commercial banks that were the main intended recipients have not shown much enthusiasm for putting the money to use in ways many economists might have liked — by stepping up interbank lending, or lending to businesses or snapping up large numbers of the bonds issued by European Union member governments.

And in the case of the car companies, it is not clear whether Mr. Draghi and the central bank are happy that the auto credit banks joined the queue for cheap loans. Asked his views earlier this month, Mr. Draghi was noncommittal.

“I don’t really have any reaction to that,” he said at a news conference. “They are acting within the law.”

 Licensed and regulated as banks, the car companies’ credit arms cannot escape the same headwinds facing other institutions, like investor hesitancy to buy corporate bonds issued by banks.

 Mr. Witter of Volkswagen Financial Services said the money borrowed from the central bank “goes straight into financing our core business.”

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Police, community and calendar briefs for March 6, 2012

The Marion County Sheriffs Office is asking the publics help in finding two stolen pickups and the thief or thieves who stole them.

Detectives believe the trucks may have been stolen by the same person or people.

One truck, a silver and black 1984 GMC pickup, was stolen from Cash Auto Sales/Auto Credit Union, 6912 S. Pine Ave., at about 7 pm on Jan. 9, according to the Sheriffs Office.

The other truck, a highly customized 1987 RV/10 pickup with a red top and black bottom with flames on the doors, was stolen from American Classic Motor Cars, 1 Aspen Road, during the evening of Feb. 24.

Anyone with information can contact Detective Julie Vowinkel at 438-5943.

Hole cut into stores wall, cash stolen

Someone cut a hole into a concrete block wall of a convenience store Sunday night and stole a small amount of cash.

Ocala police responded just after 10 pm to an alarm at AO Discount Beverage at 609 NE 36th Ave. An officer noticed the hole, which measured approximately 18 inches in diameter, in the back wall of the business.

The stores owner said the only thing missing was a black cash drawer with a small amount of cash, according to reports.

As officers continued to check the property, they discovered another hole cut into the roof. The store owner said neither of the holes were there when he closed the business at 8 pm

Anyone with information about the incident is asked to call the Ocala Police Department at 369-7000, Crime Line at 369-7001 or Crime Stoppers at 368-7867.

Man reported missing now back at home

SILVER SPRINGS A 77-year-old man reported missing late last week arrived home safe early Monday.

The daughter of Melvin Leon Brown said her father arrived home around 2 am on Monday. She said he apparently had driven his Cadillac to Daytona and back.

She told a sheriffs deputy on Friday night that her father had left their Silver Springs home around 6 am and had not been heard from since. She said he routinely left the residence at 6 am and drove to the Walmart on East Silver Springs Boulevard to visit several people and then returned home by 4 pm, religiously.

She said he is in the early stages of Alzheimers.

$1,200 reported missing from cars at camp

OCALA NATIONAL FOREST More than $1,200 in cash and other items were reported missing from five cars parked at the Ocala Youth Conservation Camp over the weekend.

The camp was the site of an archery competition, and several hundred people attended. The cars belonged to people who spent Saturday night at the camp.

The missing items were discovered Sunday afternoon. The cars had all been left unlocked, according to Marion County sheriffs reports.

In addition to cash, the stolen items included binoculars, an archery bow and a $30 Starbucks gift card.

The camp, located on Lake Eaton at 7325 NE 170th Ave., is open to several events as well as childrens summer camps during the year.

Anyone with information can call the Sheriffs Office at 732-9111 or Crime Stoppers at 368-STOP.

Deputy injured in collision listed in stable condition

A Marion County sheriffs deputy who was injured in a head-on collision that killed another man early Sunday morning was listed in stable condition on Monday at Shands at the University of Florida in Gainesville.

The deputy, Eric Meyers, was initially transported to Shands in critical condition, suffering from several injuries, including broken bones.

Meyers has just finished his shift and was driving his 2008 patrol car east on County Road 484 near Interstate 75 just before 6 am

Arthur Wesley Childs, 79 of Williamston, SC, was headed west in the eastbound lane when the two cars collided. Childs died at the scene, according to FHP reports.

FHP continues to investigate the accident.

COMMUNITY

Parent Portal offers more test scores

The Parent Portal of Marion County Public Schools now offers more resources for parents and students, including additional test scores and a Spanish version.

The program offers Web access to student grades, attendance, class assignments, homework, quiz and FCAT, ACT and SAT scores, as well as project/presentation grades. Parents also can access college placement test scores and FCAT writing scores from the state standardized test.

Documents including the Code of Student Conduct and school board policies also can be found on the site, in addition to replay options for ALERTnow messages, frequently asked questions and answers, bus schedules and online Mealpay for student meals.

Parents must register for Portal access in person at their childs school.

Youth rally, conference tackle issue of bullying

A free youth rally to empower youth to take a stand against bullying will be held from 7 to 9 pm on Friday at Church at the Springs, 5424 SE 58th Ave., Ocala.

A conference for parents, educators and others who engage kids, will be held from 8:30 am to 2 pm on Saturday at the Ocala Hilton, 3600 SW 36th Ave., Ocala. The speaker will be Tony Bartoli. The cost is $49. To register for both events, call 484-7433 or visit www.joycounsel.com.

Clubs annual golf tournament on March 17

The North Marion High Quarterback Club will be holding its annual Cow Patty Golf Tournament beginning at 11 am on March 17 at the Teuton-Pauley Farm in Anthony.

The cost is $40 per person. Proceeds will help fund the North Marion Football Program.

For more information, call Craig Damon at 671-6010 or email Daryl.Damon@marion.k12.fl.us.

CF to host Early Childhood Education Conference

The College of Central Florida, in partnership with the Early Learning Coalition of Marion County Inc., will host the 24th annual Early Childhood Education Conference from 7:15 am to 4 pm on March 24 at the Ewers Century Center, 3001 SW College Road, Ocala.

Attendees will be able to participate in nearly 40 workshop sessions. The keynote presenter is Jack Hartmann, a nationally recognized singer of childrens songs.

The fee is $30 before March 19 or $50 at the door.

For more information, call 873-5804 or email Marybeth Kyle at kylem@cf.edu.

Sheltering Hands needs volunteers for sales

Sheltering Hands needs volunteers to help with bake and book sales (email pbennighof@gmail.com), PetSmart CAT adoptions (email sandonhelf@embarqmail.com) and its Community Cat Program (call 528-3275).

To learn more, visit shelteringhands.com.

CALENDAR

COUNTY COMMISSION: The Marion County Board of County Commissioners meet at 9 am Tuesday, March 6, McPherson Governmental Complex, 601 SE 25th Avenue, Ocala. At 10 am, public hearings on Indian Meadows subdivision MSTU for street lighting and Marion Oaks General Services MSTU. (438-2323 or www.marioncountyfl.org)

CITY OF OCALA: The Ocala City Council will meet at 4 pm Tuesday, March 6, at City Hall, 151 SE Osceola Ave. Agenda items include vote on whether to extend deadlines for American Fresh Farms tomato growing project. (629-8401, www.ocalafl.org )

MORNING MIXER: West Marion Business Association morning mixer begins at 7 am Tuesday, March 6, Panera Bread, 4414 SW College Road, Suite 1540, Ocala. (westmba.com)

BELLEVIEW COMMISSION: Belleview City Commission meets at 6 pm Tuesday, March 6, City Hall, 5343 SE Abshier Blvd., Belleview. (233-2109 or www.belleviewfl.org)

INTERNATIONAL FILM: The Lives of Others will be shown at 2 pm Tuesday, March 6, Appleton Museum of Art, 4333 E. Silver Springs Blvd., Ocala, and 7 pm CF Campus, Building 8, 3001 SW College Road, Ocala. Free at CF; admission required at Appleton. (854-5800 or cf.edu)

FAIR TAX: A presentation on the FairTax begins at 7 pm Tuesday, March 6, Howard Johnson Inn, 3951 NW Bonnie Heath Blvd., Ocala. (ocalafairtax@cfl.rr.com or 671-6724)

ONLINE SAFETY: Online safety challenger for teens is 5 to 6 pm Tuesday, March 6, Belleview Library, 13145 SE Highway 484, Belleview. (438-2500)

ENGLISH CONVERSATION: Practice English 10 to 11:30 am Tuesday, March 6, Marion County Public Library, 2720 E. Silver Springs Blvd., Ocala. (671-8551)

TEEN BOOK CLUB: Manga-licious begins at 4 pm Tuesday, March 6, Marion County Public Library, 2720 E. Silver Springs Blvd., Ocala. (671-8551)

DUNNELLON FRIENDS: Friends of the Dunnellon Public Library meet at 10 am Tuesday, March 6, at the library, 20351 Robinson road, Dunnellon. (438-2520)

READING INCENTIVE: Scoop on Reading for ages 2-5 is at 10 am Wednesday, March 7, Discovery Center, 701 NE Sanchez Ave., Ocala. Free, but registration required. (401-3900 or discovery@ocalafl.org)

CF FOUNDATION: The CF Foundation Executive Committee meets at 4:30 pm Wednesday, March 7, Enterprise Center, 3001 SW College Road, Ocala. (873-5808)

TEEN TECH: In celebration of Teen Tech week, Tech Adventures, for ages 12-18, begins at 2 pm Wednesday, March 7, Freedom Public Library, 5870 SW 95th St., Ocala. (library.marioncountyfl.org or call 671-8551)

DR. SUESS: Celebrate Dr. Suesss birthday at 2 pm Wednesday, March 7, Dunnellon Public Library, 20351 Robinson road, Dunnellon. Registration required, for grades K-2. (438-2520)

To submit information for this list, send an e-mail to calendar@starbanner.com or visit www.ocala.com, scroll down and click on EVENTS CALENDAR on the right.

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Taylor Auto Credit

Taylor Auto Credit
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Our commitment to quality has earned us the 1995 Quality Dealer
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Leave the big city and come to Taylor. We are always getting new
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Student loans surpass auto, credit card debt

Posted at 10:54 AM ET, 03/06/2012
Student loans surpass auto, credit card debt
By Daniel de Vise

Americans owe more on their student loans
than on their credit cards or car loans, according to a new report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

President Obama moves to ease student loan burdens at a 2011 speech in Denver. (AP)Student loan debt stands at $870 billion nationally, surpassing the nation’s outstanding balance on auto loans ($730 billion) and credit cards ($693 billion), according to Grading Student Loans, which is not a formal report so much as a scholarly blog post published by the economists at the New York Fed.

It comes at a time of heightened awareness of the student debt crunch. Last fall, President Obama took executive action to cap monthly loan payments at 10 percent of discretionary income, down from 15 percent previously. Obama has challenged colleges to help students manage their debt by keeping costs down.

One-third of the national student-loan balance is held by people ages 30 to 39, and another third by people older than that, signifying that only a small share of college graduates manage to retire their loan debt while still in their 20s.

I will present the report’s other key findings in bullet form, to make for easy reading:

• Student loan debt is rising at a time when other debt is flat or even declining. From the second to the third quarter of 2011, the nation’s loan balance grew 2.1 percent, from $852 billion to $870 billion.

• Fifteen percent of all Americans with enough of an economic pulse to have credit reports have outstanding student-loan debt. Two-fifths of people under 30 have loan debt, and 25 percent of those between 30 and 39.

• $85 billion in student loan debt is “past due,” and of that total, three-quarters is owed by people over 30. More than five million borrowers have past-due student loans.

By Daniel de Vise
 | 
10:54 AM ET, 03/06/2012

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Greece’s Rich Pawn Luxuries To Ride Out Crisis

On the outskirts of Athens there is a company that trades in the unhappiness of others.

A dusty Ferrari sits abandoned in a garage, while the forecourt of Auto-Credit is packed with other luxury cars incompatible with this age of austerity.

This is where the wealthy come to pawn their supercars in order to ride out the recession.

Ten owners a day hand over their keys for a three-month contract and a handful of euros.

Increasingly, many of those struggling in the crisis cant afford to get their cars back, so the business has expanded into neighbouring lots.

Theres even a secret location where company founder Christos Ioannou is now storing luxury yachts, which owners can no longer afford to run.

Of course, they are emotional when they come here, he told Sky News.

Its their car, or their boat and a means of transport and they are only here because of their difficult financial state.

Theres an ironic twist to this story, too: the number of buyers is also drying up, so hes planning on reselling the cars in the country where many of them were assembled.

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Hearing postponed to March in Kan. commune case

Thursdays preliminary hearing for Daniel U. Perez was rescheduled at the request of his defense attorney. The hearing will be held March 8.

Perez is accused of premeditated murder in the death of Patricia Hughes at the groups Valley Center compound. Her 2003 drowning death was originally considered an accident but was recently reclassified as a homicide.

The 52-year-old Perez is also charged with rape, sodomy, aggravated assault, making false statements on life insurance policies, making false statements to obtain auto credit and sexual exploitation of a child.

He is being held on a $2.1 million bond.

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TBC Kredit announced discount campaign for auto credits for women

Baku, Fineko/abc.az. Non-Bank credit organization TBC Kredit has announced discount program for auto credits on the occasion of 8 March International Women Day.

The organization reports that by 10 March, all ladies applying for auto credit, get a gift- reduction of annual interest rate by 1%. Now minimal credit rate makes 17% per annum. The men can also make a gift to their ladies, at that all documents are drawn up for women but income of the presenter is taken into account.

Auto credits from TBC Kredit enjoy great demand among the population. The credit is provided for purchase of any car ( make and year are of no importance), without initial contribution and insurance. In case when sum of credit exceeds AZN 25.000 and redemption period exceeds 36 months, car insurance is compulsory. Besides it is possible to apply for the credit first, get response and then start searching for the car. Maximal sum of credit makes AZN 50.000 with maximal term up to 60 months.

More information can be got in TBC Kredit#146;s client servicing centers- telephones- 598-07-91/598-22-12 and www.tbc.az site where one can fill in on line application and calculate monthly payments by credit calculator.

Non bank credit organization TBC Kredit has been operating in Azerbaijan since 1999. From December 2007 75% of the company is owned by leading Georgian Bank TBC Bank and 25% – by ShoreBank International Ltd.

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Four flown from Western crash

CHILLICOTHE — Names and conditions of four people injured in a two-car crash Friday night — two of whom were flown from the scene — were not available in the hours after the crash.

The crash happened about 6:45 pm in the westbound lane of Western Avenue at Scioto Woods. According to the Ohio Highway Patrol, a woman driving a Pontiac Sunbird attempted to turn onto Western Avenue from Scioto Woods and was struck by a Chevrolet Silverado traveling west along Western Avenue.

The impact caused the car to go off the north side of the road into a ditch area and hit a marquee sign in front of Glockner Auto Credit.

The driver of the car and a male juvenile passenger were taken by medical helicopter to Columbus hospitals. Another male juvenile passenger and a dog were uninjured in the crash.

A pair of passengers from the truck were taken by ambulance to Adena Medical Center for treatment. The driver of the truck was uninjured.

The patrol still is investigating and will release more information when the initial report is completed.

Western Avenue in the area of the crash reopened to traffic at about 8 pm

Names and further details in this incidents are not yet available. Watch www.chillicothegazette.com for more as the stories develop.

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Verizon reverses on $2 fee for one-time payments

NEW YORK — After a customer backlash, Verizon Wireless on Friday dropped a plan to start charging $2 for every payment subscribers make over the phone or online with their credit or debit cards.

In a statement on its website Friday, the company said #x201C;customer feedback#x201D; prompted the decision to drop the #x201C;convenience fee#x201D; it wanted to introduce Jan. 15.

Verizon wanted to steer people to electronic check payments, which are cheaper, and auto credit card payments, which are more reliable.

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